Monday, December 19, 2011

AT&T bows to objections, drops bid for T-Mobile

AT&T bows to objections, drops bid for T-Mobile

Cellphone giant had faced fierce battle with federal regulators

AT&T is ending its $39 billion bid to buy T-Mobile USA, citing fierce government objections.
The Justice Department sued to block the merger Aug. 31, saying it would reduce competition and lead to higher prices.
Executives of the two wireless giants disagreed, but last month they took a step toward terminating the deal when they withdrew their application to the Federal Communications Commission after its chairman also opposed the merger.
AT&T maintained Monday that the wireless phone industry requires more airwave space to expand.
"The AT&T and T-Mobile USA combination would have offered an interim solution to this spectrum shortage," the company said in a news release. "In the absence of such steps, customers will be harmed and needed investment will be stifled."
AT&T's purchase of T-Mobile from Deutsche Telekom of Germany would have made it the largest cellphone company in the United States. AT&T is the country's second-largest wireless carrier, while T-Mobile is the fourth-largest.
The decision was hailed by consumer advocates, who had warned that the merger would concentrate too much power in the hands of a single carrier.
"From the first day that this deal was announced, we have warned regulators, lawmakers, and consumers of the dangerous consequences of this merger," said Parul P. Desai, policy counsel for Consumers Union, according to its website The Consumerist. "Regulators clearly saw through AT&T's claims of better service and saw what we saw - a combined AT&T/T-Mobile would mean higher prices and fewer choices for consumers. It would mean a wireless market dominated by a powerful duopoly with little incentive to compete with other carriers."

The termination of the merger agreement will be a costly one for AT&T, which will take a pretax accounting charge of $4 billion in the current quarter to reflect a breakup fee it agreed to pay Deutsche Telekom.
“AT&T will continue to be aggressive in leading the mobile Internet revolution,” Randall Stephenson, AT&T chairman and CEO, said in the news release. But he called on government policymakers to make more spectrum available.

“The mobile Internet is a dynamic industry that can be a critical driver in restoring American economic growth and job creation, but only if companies are allowed to react quickly to customer needs and market forces,” he said.
Failure of the deal leaves U.S. consumers with four main options for cell phone service: AT&T, Verizon, Sprint and T-Mobile.
But long-term prospects for T-Mobile are uncertain. The company's German parent has expressed a desire to exit the U.S. market. Unlike the other major carriers, T-Mobile is not building out its own high-speed, next generation wireless network.

21 comments:

  1. Will BPL hit $5 billion in 2013?
    Chronicling the broadband over power lines industry ghi
    Tuesday June 26, 2007 BPL Today
    Global revenue from BPL will climb
    from $57.1 million last year to $4.95
    billion in revenue in 2013, said a
    new report from Telecom Trends
    International. The study got some
    traction in the general press and builds
    on a March 2005 report that predicted
    $4 billion in 2011 (BT, 3/28/05).
    Predictions for 2011 are lower in the
    new report, lead author Naqi Jaffrey told
    us yesterday, since the market moved
    slower than expected. So why’s he
    confident about the new numbers? He
    sees lots of momentum in the access
    market, he noted. Maybe it’s less than
    expected, but some big commercial
    access roll-outs are underway and
    that’s new from two years ago. Also
    the OPERA access standard is out and
    HomePlug’s access standard is coming,
    said Jaffrey -- and he believes the IEEE’s
    expectations for an interoperability
    standard by 2009 are realistic. He’s
    surprised to see his competitors taking a
    more dismal look at the industry (www.
    telecomtrends.net). BOTTOM LINE:
    So are we.

    ReplyDelete
  2. 11-09-2011
    Tablet, smartphone use pushing public WiFi growth, study says
    As consumers continue to demand more wireless connections for their smartphones and tablets computers, the number of public WiFi hotspots is expected to quadruple in the next four years.

    According to a study conducted by research firm Informa and commissioned by the Wireless Broadband Alliance (WBA), a telecom industry lobby, the number of WiFi hotspots will reach 5.8 million worldwide by 2015, and mobile data traffic is estimated to exceed 16.8 million terabytes by 2014.

    "The findings show we are about to enter the golden age of public WiFi with hotspot deployments set to soar," says WBA chairman Chris Bruce in a statement.

    This trend of multiplying WiFi hotspots has been seen over the last decade at airports and popular tourist attractions around the world. New York City, for example, has announced that it will introduce 26 free WiFi hotspots at 20 parks in the next five years.

    However, according to Informa, China and Japan are likely to see the biggest growth in hotspots in the coming years. China Mobile, the country's biggest wireless carrier, plans to deploy 1 million hotspots within six months, while Japan's KDDI will increase its hotspot count ten-fold.


    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

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  3. The Mobile Network in 2010 and 2011

    Global mobile data traffic grew 2.6-fold in 2010, nearly tripling for the third year in a row. The 2010 mobile data traffic growth rate was higher than anticipated. Last year's forecast projected that the growth rate would be 149 percent. This year's estimate is that global mobile data traffic grew 159 percent in 2010.
    Last year's mobile data traffic was three times the size of the entire global Internet in 2000. Global mobile data traffic in 2010 (237 petabytes per month) was over three times greater than the total global Internet traffic in 2000 (75 petabytes per month).
    Mobile video traffic will exceed 50 percent for the first time in 2011. Mobile video traffic was 49.8 percent of total mobile data traffic at the end of 2010, and will account for 52.8 percent of traffic by the end of 2011.
    Mobile network connection speeds doubled in 2010. Globally, the average mobile network downstream speed in 2010 was 215 kilobits per second (kbps), up from 101 kbps in 2009. The average mobile network connection speed for smartphones in 2010 was 1040 kbps, up from 625 kbps in 2009.
    The top 1 percent of mobile data subscribers generate over 20 percent of mobile data traffic, down from 30 percent 1 year ago. According to a mobile data usage study conducted by Cisco, mobile data traffic has evened out over the last year and now matches the 1:20 ratio that has been true of fixed networks for several years. Similarly, the top 10 percent of mobile data subscribers now generate approximately 60 percent of mobile data traffic, down from 70 percent at the beginning of the year.
    Average smartphone usage doubled in 2010. The average amount of traffic per smartphone in 2010 was 79 MB per month, up from 35 MB per month in 2009.
    Smartphones represent only 13 percent of total global handsets in use today, but they represent over 78 percent of total global handset traffic. In 2010, the typical smartphone generated 24 times more mobile data traffic (79 MB per month) than the typical basic-feature cell phone (which generated only 3.3 MB per month of mobile data traffic).
    Globally, 31 percent of smartphone traffic was offloaded onto the fixed network through dual-mode or femtocell in 2010. Last year, 14.3 petabytes of smartphone and tablet traffic were offloaded onto the fixed network each month. Without offload, traffic originating from smartphones and tablets would have been 51 petabytes per month rather than 37 petabytes per month in 2010.
    Android approaches iPhone levels of data use. At the beginning of the year, iPhone consumption was at least 4 times higher than that of any other smartphone platform. Toward the end of the year, iPhone consumption was only 1.75 times higher than that of the second-highest platform, Android.
    In 2010, 3 million tablets were connected to the mobile network, and each tablet generated 5 times more traffic than the average smartphone. In 2010, mobile data traffic per tablet was 405 MB per month, compared to 79 MB per month per smartphone.
    There were 94 million laptops on the mobile network in 2010, and each laptop generated 22 times more traffic than the average smartphone. Mobile data traffic per laptop was 1.7 GB per month, up 49 percent from 1.1 GB per month in 2009.
    Nonsmartphone usage increased 2.2-fold to 3.3 MB per month in 2010, compared to 1.5 MB per month in 2009. Basic handsets still make up the vast majority of devices on the network (87 percent).
    There are 48 million people in the world who have mobile phones, even though they do not have electricity at home. The mobile network has extended beyond the boundaries of the power grid.

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  4. The Mobile Network in 2015

    Global mobile data traffic will increase 26-fold between 2010 and 2015. Mobile data traffic will grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 92 percent from 2010 to 2015, reaching 6.3 exabytes per month by 2015.
    There will be nearly one mobile device per capita by 2015. There will be over 7.1 billion mobile-connected devices, including machine-to-machine (M2M) modules, in 2015-approximately equal to the world's population in 2015 (7.2 billion).
    Mobile network connection speeds will increase 10-fold by 2015. The average mobile network connection speed (215 kbps in 2010) will grow at a compound annual growth rate of 60 percent, and will exceed 2.2 megabits per second (Mbps) in 2015.
    Two-thirds of the world's mobile data traffic will be video by 2015. Mobile video will more than double every year between 2010 and 2015. Mobile video has the highest growth rate of any application category measured within the Cisco VNI forecast at this time.
    Mobile-connected tablets will generate as much traffic in 2015 as the entire global mobile network in 2010. The amount of mobile data traffic generated by tablets in 2015 (248 petabytes per month) will be approximately equal to the total amount of global mobile data traffic in 2010 (242 petabytes per month). The same will be true of M2M traffic, which will reach 295 petabytes per month in 2015.
    The average smartphone will generate 1.3 GB of traffic per month in 2015, a 16-fold increase over the 2010 average of 79 MB per month. Aggregate smartphone traffic in 2015 will be 47 times greater than it is today, with a CAGR of 116 percent.
    By 2015, over 800 million terabytes of mobile data traffic will be offloaded to the fixed network by means of dual-mode devices and femtocells. Without dual-mode and femtocell offload of smartphone and tablet traffic, total mobile data traffic would reach 7.1 exabytes per month in 2015, growing at a CAGR of 95 percent.
    The Middle East and Africa will have the strongest mobile data traffic growth of any region at 129 percent CAGR, followed by Latin America at 111 percent and Central and Eastern Europe at 102 percent.
    There will be 788 million mobile-only Internet users by 2015. The mobile-only Internet population will grow 56-fold from 14 million at the end of 2010 to 788 million by the end of 2015.
    The mobile network will break the electricity barrier in more than 4 major regions by 2015. By 2015, 4 major regions (Sub-Saharan Africa, Southeast Asia, South Asia, and the Middle East) and 40 countries (including India, Indonesia, and Nigeria) will have more people with mobile network access than with access to electricity at home. The off-grid, on-net population will reach 138 million by 2015.
    Appendix A summarizes the details and methodology of the VNI forecast.
    Year in Review: Mobile Data Traffic Nearly Tripled in 2010

    Global mobile data traffic nearly tripled (2.6-fold growth) in 2010, for the third year in a row. It is a testament to the momentum of the mobile industry that this growth persisted despite the continued economic downturn, the introduction of tiered mobile data packages, and an increase in the amount of mobile traffic offloaded to the fixed network.
    Although last year's Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast had projected strong growth in mobile data traffic in 2010 (149 percent), growth was even stronger than anticipated (159 percent). Even more surprising was the strong growth in markets that already had relatively high mobile data adoption and use. For example, last year's forecast projected 120 percent mobile data traffic growth in Japan in 2010, but we now estimate that the growth was 137 percent. As shown in Table 1, mobile operators and content providers in all regions have continued to report strong traffic growth

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  5. Table 1. Examples of Mobile Data Traffic Growth in 2010

    Region
    Mobile Operator and Content Provider Examples

    Korea
    • From mid-2009 to mid-2010, KT recorded a 344% increase in 3G mobile data traffic, SK Telecom's traffic grew 232%, and LG's traffic grew 114%.
    • KT expects a 49-fold increase in mobile device traffic from 2009 to 2012, but plans to offload 40 percent of this traffic.
    Japan
    • Softbank's mobile traffic grew 260% from 1Q 2009 to 1Q 2010, according to estimates by HSBC.
    • KDDI expects mobile data traffic to grow 15-fold by 2015.
    • NTT DoCoMo's mobile data traffic grew 60% from year to year.
    China
    • China Unicom's 3G traffic increased 62% in a single quarter from Q1 to Q2 of 2010.
    France
    • SFR's mobile data traffic has tripled each year since 2008.
    Italy
    • Telecom Italia delivered 15 times more mobile data traffic in 2010 than in 2007.
    Europe
    • Vodafone's European mobile data traffic increased 115% from 1Q 2009 to 2Q 2009, and 88% from 2Q 2009 to 2Q 2010.
    • TeliaSonera expects mobile data traffic to double each year for the next 5 years.
    United States
    • AT&T reports that traffic grew 30-fold from 3Q 2009 to 3Q 2010.
    Global
    • Google reports that the number of YouTube videos delivered to mobile devices tripled in 2010, reaching 200 million video views per day.


    Why Was Growth Higher than Expected in 2010?

    One reason for the unexpectedly strong growth in 2010 was the accelerated adoption of smartphones by mobile phone subscribers, in combination with the much higher usage profile of smartphones relative to basic handsets. Last year we expected that the smartphone installed base would increase 22 percent in 2010, but Informa Telecoms and Media data indicates that the number of smartphones in use grew by 32 percent during the year.
    In addition to the increase in smartphone adoption, there was a sharp increase in those smartphones that have the highest usage profile: iPhones and Android phones. The number of iPhones and Android devices in use grew 72 percent in 2010, bringing the combined iOS and Android share of smartphones to 23 percent, up from 11 percent in 2009.
    Operators such as Vodafone have reiterated that smartphone users generate 10 to 20 times the traffic of their nonsmartphone counterparts. Operators have also reported that iPhones generate 5 to 10 times the traffic of the average smartphone, and according to a recent analysis of usage data conducted by Cisco, Android phones are catching up to iPhones in usage volume.
    In addition to the evolving handset mix, other high-usage devices increased their presence on the mobile network. The number of mobile-connected laptops grew by 63 percent in 2010. A large percentage of mobile-connected laptop users consider mobile broadband their primary means of accessing the Internet, and in many regions there is a pronounced mobile broadband substitution effect. A recent survey by Ofcom indicates that the percentage of Internet users who have substituted mobile broadband for fixed broadband is 6 percent in the United Kingdom, 11 percent in Germany, and 13 percent in Italy. As expected, substitution users generate much more traffic than users who use mobile broadband as a complement to fixed networking.
    Tablets also made their first appearance on the mobile network in 2010, bringing a data usage profile that is 5 times higher than that of a smartphone. Table 2 summarizes the number of each type of device and the traffic multipliers associated with them.

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  6. Table 2. Devices with High Usage Profiles Are Growing in Number on the Mobile Network

    Device
    Millions in Use 2009
    Millions in Use 2010
    Usage Multiplier Relative to Nonsmartphone
    Usage Multiplier Relative to Smartphone

    Smartphones
    399
    526
    24 Nonsmartphones
    1 Smartphone

    iOS and Android phones
    45
    121
    96 Nonsmartphones
    4 Smartphones

    Mobile-connected tablets
    0.3
    3.0
    122 Nonsmartphones
    5 Smartphones

    Mobile-connected laptops
    58
    94
    515 Nonsmartphones
    22 Smartphones



    Source: Informa Telecoms and Media, Strategy Analytics, Cisco VNI Mobile, 2011

    What is the Outlook for 2011?

    Cisco estimates that traffic in 2011 will grow 131 percent, reflecting a slight tapering in growth rates. The evolving device mix and the migration of traffic from the fixed network to the mobile network have the potential to bring the growth rate higher, while tiered pricing and traffic offload may reduce this effect. The current growth rates of mobile data traffic resemble those of the fixed network from 1997 through 2001, when the average yearly growth was 150 percent. In the case of the fixed network, the growth rate remained in the range of 150 percent for 5 years.
    Table 3. Global Mobile Data Growth Today is Similar to Global Internet Growth (Fixed) in the Late 1990s

    Global Internet Traffic Growth
    Global Mobile Data Traffic Growth

    1997
    178%
    2008
    156%

    1998
    124%
    2009
    140%

    1999
    128%
    2010
    159%

    2000
    195%
    2011 (estimate)
    131%

    2001
    133%
    2012 (estimate)
    113%



    Source: Cisco VNI Mobile, 2011

    In the long term, mobile data and fixed traffic should settle into the same growth rate, although the mobile data growth rate is likely to remain higher than the fixed growth rate for the next 7 to 10 years.
    Global Mobile Data Traffic, 2010 to 2015

    Overall mobile data traffic is expected to grow to 6.3 exabytes per month by 2015, a 26-fold increase over 2010. Mobile data traffic will grow at a CAGR of 92 percent from 2010 to 2015. Annual growth rates will taper over the forecast period from 131 percent in 2011 to 64 percent in 2015 (Figure 1).

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  7. Figure 1. Cisco Forecasts 6.3 Exabytes per Month of Mobile Data Traffic by 2015


    Western Europe and Asia Pacific will account for over half of global mobile traffic by 2015, as shown in Figure 2. Middle East and Africa will experience the highest CAGR of 129 percent, increasing 63-fold over the forecast period. The emerging market regions (Central and Eastern Europe, Latin America, and Middle East and Africa) will have the highest growth and will represent an increasing share of total mobile data traffic, from 12 percent at the end of 2010 to 20 percent by 2015.
    Figure 2. Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast by Region


    In the sections that follow, we identify nine major trends behind the growth of mobile data traffic.
    Trend 1: Device Diversification

    Figure 3 shows the devices responsible for mobile data traffic growth. Laptops and netbooks will continue to generate a disproportionate amount of traffic, but new device categories such as M2M and tablets will begin to account for a significant portion of the traffic by 2015.
    Figure 3. Laptops and Smartphones Lead Traffic Growth


    The introduction of laptops, tablets, and high-end handsets onto mobile networks is a major generator of traffic, because these devices offer the consumer content and applications not supported by the previous generation of mobile devices. As shown in Figure 4, a single laptop can generate as much traffic as 515 basic-feature phones, and a smartphone creates as much traffic as 24 basic-feature phones.
    Figure 4. High-End Devices Can Multiply Traffic


    Trend 2: Growth in Average Traffic per Device

    Average traffic per device is expected to increase rapidly during the forecast period, as shown in Table 4.
    Table 4. Summary of Per Device Usage Growth

    Device Type
    2009
    2010
    2015

    Nonsmartphone
    1.5
    3.3
    54

    E-reader
    5
    11
    245

    Smartphone
    35
    79
    1,272

    Portable gaming console
    Not available
    250
    879

    Tablet
    28
    405
    2,311

    Laptop and netbook
    1,145
    1,708
    6,522

    M2M module
    3
    35
    166



    Source: Cisco VNI Mobile, 2011

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  8. The growth in usage per device outpaces the growth in the number of devices. As shown in Table 5, the growth rate of new-device mobile data traffic is 2 to 5 times greater than the growth rate of users.
    Table 5. Comparison of Global Device Unit Growth and Global Mobile Data Traffic Growth

    Device Type
    Growth in Users, 2010-2015 CAGR
    Growth in Mobile Data Traffic, 2010-2015 CAGR

    Smartphone
    24%
    116%

    Portable gaming console
    79%
    130%

    Tablet
    105%
    190%

    Laptop and netbook
    42%
    85%

    M2M module
    53%
    109%



    Source: Cisco VNI Mobile, 2011

    The following are a few of the main promoters of growth in average usage:
    • As mobile network connection speeds increase, the average bit rate of content accessed through the mobile network will increase. High-definition video will be more prevalent, and the proportion of streamed content as compared to side-loaded content is also expected to increase with average mobile network connection speed.

    • As the battery life of mobile devices improves, mobile minutes of use will increase. The amount of long-form video viewed on mobile devices will grow as battery life and processing power advances.

    • As mobile network capacity improves, operators are more likely to offer mobile broadband packages comparable in price and speed to those of fixed broadband, thereby encouraging mobile broadband substitution. The usage profile of substitution users is substantially higher than average.

    • The shift towards unicast from broadcast video will affect mobile networks as much as it will affect fixed networks. Internet radio and Internet video are unicast, meaning that there is one data stream per user, unlike broadcast, where one stream serves many users. The shift from broadcast to unicast means that traffic can increase dramatically even while the total amount of time spent watching video remains relatively constant.

    Mobile devices increase an individual's contact time with the network, and it is likely that in the early stages of mobile Internet use, this increased contact time will lead to an increase in overall minutes of use per user. However, not all of the increase in mobile data traffic can be attributed to traffic migration to the mobile network from the fixed network. Many uniquely mobile applications have already emerged, such as location-based applications and services.
    Trend 3: Mobile Video

    Because mobile video content has much higher bit rates than other mobile content types, mobile video will generate much of the mobile traffic growth through 2015. Of the 6.3 exabytes per month crossing the mobile network by 2015, 4.2 exabytes will be due to video (Figure 5).

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  9. Figure 5. Mobile Video Will Generate 66 Percent of Mobile Data Traffic by 2015


    Note that last year's forecast estimated that 66 percent of mobile network traffic would be video traffic by 2014. The mobile video percentage estimated for 2015 is not higher than 66 percent because of the inclusion of M2M traffic in this year's forecast.
    Trend 4: Mobile Internet Substitution

    In many countries in Europe and elsewhere, mobile operators are offering mobile broadband services at prices and speeds comparable to those of fixed broadband. Although there are often data caps on mobile broadband services that are lower than those of fixed broadband, some consumers are opting to forego their fixed lines in favor of mobile services.
    Even where laptop-based mobile broadband services remain expensive, the number of handset-based mobile Internet users may exceed the number of fixed mobile Internet users in regions with low penetration of fixed telecommunications services.
    In total, the number of mobile-only Internet users will grow 25-fold between 2010 and 2015, reaching 788 million mobile-only Internet users. Asia Pacific will account for over half of all mobile-only Internet users. Table 6 shows are Cisco's estimates for the number of mobile-only Internet users through 2015.
    Table 6. Number of Mobile-Only Internet Users

    2010
    2011
    2012
    2013
    2014
    2015

    Global
    13,976,859
    31,860,295
    78,855,662
    188,375,368
    487,426,725
    788,324,804

    Asia Pacific
    2,448,932
    6,768,196
    20,543,294
    67,012,433
    240,350,642
    420,277,951

    Latin America
    1,329,853
    4,040,217
    12,720,259
    26,665,349
    49,199,321
    71,548,055

    North America
    2,615,787
    4,218,310
    6,550,322
    14,257,565
    38,783,886
    55,646,710

    Western Europe
    5,237,113
    10,348,319
    21,163,143
    33,524,429
    58,670,609
    83,364,841

    Japan
    441,060
    1,021,441
    3,322,664
    10,780,236
    21,462,108
    31,876,998

    Central and Eastern Europe
    1,156,893
    3,140,746
    8,252,679
    20,303,462
    38,480,441
    58,717,045

    Middle East and Africa
    747,221
    2,323,065
    6,303,302
    15,831,895
    40,479,719
    66,893,204



    Source: Cisco VNI Mobile, 2011

    Trend 5: Traffic Offload from Mobile Networks to Fixed Networks

    Much mobile data activity takes place within the user's home. A survey conducted by Cisco's Internet Business Solutions Group (IBSG) indicates that the percentage of time spent using mobile Internet at home is approximately 40 percent of total mobile data use, on average. The amount of mobile data use that is "on the move" is approximately 35 percent, while the remaining 25 percent of mobile Internet use occurs at work.
    The relatively high percentage of home-based mobile data use suggests that operators may be able to offload traffic onto a fixed network, either by offering their subscribers dual-mode mobile phones or through deployment of femtocell technology.
    Cisco has estimated the amount of smartphone traffic that can be offloaded through dual-mode devices or femtocells (see Table 7). The offload factor for each country is a combination of smartphone penetration, dual-mode share of smartphones, percentage of home-based mobile Internet use, and percentage of dual-mode smartphone owners with Wi-Fi fixed Internet access at home.

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  10. Table 7. Projected Dual-Mode and Femtocell Traffic Offload as a Percentage of Smartphone and Tablet Traffic

    2010
    2011
    2012
    2013
    2014
    2015

    China
    20%
    21%
    21%
    22%
    22%
    23%

    India
    28%
    24%
    19%
    15%
    10%
    5%

    Korea
    28%
    28%
    30%
    31%
    32%
    33%

    Rest of Asia Pacific
    30%
    31%
    33%
    35%
    37%
    39%

    Rest of Central and Eastern Europe
    32%
    32%
    33%
    33%
    34%
    35%

    Russia
    35%
    36%
    37%
    39%
    41%
    42%

    Japan
    32%
    31%
    31%
    30%
    29%
    28%

    Brazil
    23%
    24%
    24%
    24%
    23%
    22%

    Mexico
    16%
    14%
    13%
    12%
    10%
    9%

    Rest of Latin America
    21%
    20%
    19%
    18%
    17%
    16%

    Rest of Middle East and Africa
    26%
    24%
    24%
    23%
    23%
    23%

    South Africa
    29%
    27%
    27%
    27%
    26%
    26%

    Canada
    21%
    23%
    26%
    29%
    31%
    34%

    U.S.
    21%
    23%
    26%
    28%
    29%
    30%

    France
    31%
    32%
    33%
    35%
    37%
    38%

    Germany
    38%
    40%
    41%
    40%
    39%
    37%

    Italy
    29%
    28%
    27%
    27%
    26%
    25%

    Rest of Western Europe
    35%
    37%
    37%
    36%
    35%
    34%

    U.K.
    40%
    41%
    43%
    43%
    43%
    42%



    Source: Cisco VNI Mobile, 2011

    In many developing countries and regions, the offload percentage declines, while in developed regions, the offload factor steadily rises throughout the forecast period. The declining offload factor in developing markets is due to a decreasing number of mobile data users with Wi-Fi access at home.
    Without offload, the combined amount of tablet and smartphone traffic would be 2.7 exabytes per month in 2015, up 54-fold from 2010. With offload, smartphone and tablet traffic will amount to 1.9 exabytes per month in 2015, up 52-fold from 2010. Over 800 million terabytes of mobile data traffic will be offloaded in 2015. The total offload for smartphones and tablets will be 39 percent in 2015, up from 31 percent in 2010 (Figure 6).

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  11. Figure 6. 39 Percent of Smartphone and Tablet Traffic will be Offloaded by 2015


    Because dual-mode devices are primarily smartphones and tablets, the overall offload amount in the current year is smaller than that shown above, as nonsmartphones still account for approximately one quarter of handset traffic.
    Trend 6: Mobile Network Connection Speeds to Increase 10-fold by 2015

    Globally, the average mobile network connection speed in 2010 was 215 kbps. The average speed will grow at a compound annual growth rate of 60 percent, and will exceed 2.2 Mbps in 2015. Smartphone speeds, generally 3G and higher, are currently nearly five times higher than the overall average. Smartphone speeds will quadruple by 2015, reaching 4.4 Mbps.
    There is anecdotal evidence to support the idea that usage increases when speed increases, although there is often a delay between the increase in speed and the increased usage, which can range from a few months to several years. The Cisco VNI forecast relates application bit rates to the average speeds in each country. Many of the trends in the resulting traffic forecast can be seen in the speed forecast, such as the high growth rates for developing countries and regions relative to more developed areas (Table 8).
    Table 8. Projected Average Mobile Network Connection Speeds (in kbps) by Region and Country

    2009
    2010
    2011
    2012
    2013
    2014
    2015
    CAGR
    2010-2015

    Global

    Global speed: All handsets
    101
    215
    359
    584
    934
    1,465
    2,220
    60%

    Global speed: Smartphones
    614
    1,038
    1,443
    1,953
    2,608
    3,424
    4,404
    34%

    By Region

    Asia Pacific
    37
    74
    115
    188
    328
    584
    984
    68%

    Latin America
    13
    50
    103
    206
    402
    744
    1,260
    91%

    North America
    376
    707
    1,071
    1,556
    2,198
    2,996
    3,994
    41%

    Western Europe
    151
    444
    932
    1,696
    2,708
    3,919
    5,336
    64%

    Japan
    769
    1,394
    2,009
    2,631
    3,353
    4,282
    5,509
    32%

    Central and Eastern Europe
    43
    117
    246
    499
    955
    1,704
    2,786
    89%

    Middle East and Africa
    13
    59
    141
    309
    620
    1,142
    1,948
    101%

    By Country

    Australia
    413
    953
    1,397
    1,967
    2,674
    3,556
    4,649
    37%

    Brazil
    26
    74
    145
    275
    508
    895
    1,458
    82%

    Canada
    216
    683
    1,217
    1,931
    2,860
    4,109
    5,680
    53%

    China
    13
    50
    99
    208
    428
    816
    1,384
    94%

    France
    111
    530
    1,307
    2,516
    3,992
    5,662
    7,510
    70%

    Germany
    61
    306
    730
    1,462
    2,486
    3,668
    4,929
    74%

    India
    1
    19
    61
    125
    262
    546
    1,037
    124%

    Italy
    158
    465
    1,073
    2,092
    3,475
    5,142
    7,037
    72%

    Japan
    769
    1,394
    2,009
    2,631
    3,353
    4,282
    5,509
    32%

    Korea
    868
    1,447
    1,950
    2,521
    3,193
    3,981
    4,984
    28%

    Mexico
    6
    36
    80
    175
    384
    822
    1,557
    112%

    New Zealand
    352
    715
    1,355
    2,048
    2,986
    4,213
    5,738
    52%

    Rest of Asia Pacific
    24
    85
    168
    321
    608
    1,103
    1,860
    85%

    Rest of Central and Eastern Europe
    56
    140
    292
    577
    1,070
    1,854
    2,966
    84%

    Rest of Latin America
    6
    38
    79
    165
    326
    598
    997
    93%

    Rest of Middle East and Africa
    10
    43
    105
    238
    503
    977
    1,738
    110%

    Rest of Western Europe
    153
    353
    701
    1,245
    2,001
    2,950
    4,077
    63%

    Russia
    20
    75
    163
    356
    741
    1,422
    2,448
    101%

    South Africa
    51
    268
    655
    1,386
    2,474
    3,842
    5,454
    83%

    U.K.
    306
    820
    1,466
    2,338
    3,398
    4,668
    6,155
    50%

    U.S.
    389
    709
    1,059
    1,526
    2,143
    2,902
    3,848
    40%



    Source: Cisco VNI Mobile, 2011

    Current and historical speeds are based on data from Cisco's GiST (Global Internet Speed Test) application and Ookla's Speedtest. Forward projections for mobile data speeds are based on third-party forecasts for the relative proportions of 2G, 3G, 3.5G, and 4G among mobile connections through 2015. For more information about Cisco GIST, please visit www.ciscovnipulse.com.

    ReplyDelete
  12. Trend 7: The Advent of Tiered Pricing

    An increasing number of service providers worldwide are moving from unlimited data plans to tiered mobile data packages. To make an initial estimate of the impact of tiered pricing on traffic growth, we recently completed a case study based on the data of a Global Top 50 service provider, spanning the months immediately preceding and following the introduction of tiered pricing.
    The impact of tiered pricing on traffic does not appear to be immediate. Three months after the service provider in this case study introduced tiered pricing, 20 percent of smartphone users were on tiered plans, but traffic growth continued at a rate of 5 percent per month. Although there may turn out to be longer-term effects, the overall measures in the 3 months following the pricing change reflect continued mobile data traffic growth.
    Traffic volumes of mobile data users in the 3 months after the pricing change were 15 percent higher than volumes in the 3 months prior to the pricing change, growing from an average of 114 megabytes per month in the 3 months before tiered pricing to 131 megabytes per month in the 3 months after tiered pricing. The percentage of users generating over 200 megabytes per month increased from 20 percent to 30 percent over the course of 9 months.
    The findings of the case study are reflected in the traffic forecast methodology in the following ways:
    • The impact of tiered pricing is assumed to be a gradual rather than a sudden phenomenon

    • Mobile broadband substitution is tempered according to common data caps in the country or region. For instance, mobile broadband packages in South Africa are comparatively expensive with relatively low data caps, so mobile broadband substitution usage is tempered by nearly 30 percent. A mobile broadband user who might otherwise generate 1.2 GB of traffic per month instead uses 0.9 GB per month.

    • Growth rates per user slowed through 2012. After 2012 it is assumed that capacity upgrades will allow service providers to raise data caps.

    More detail on the tiered pricing case study is available in Appendix B.
    Trend 8: The (Mobile) Internet of Things

    M2M mobile connections are expanding globally, along with other mobile connections, due to the growing hardware and software components for smart meters, business and consumer surveillance , inventory management, and fleet management, all of which are designed for operational excellence. As mobile data networks become ubiquitous in the enterprise, bandwidth-intensive M2M connections become more prevalent (Figure 7). Traditional appliances and devices, such as home appliances, vehicles, energy meters, and vending machines-which traditionally have not been connected directly to cellular networks-are now entering the network.
    High-bandwidth scenarios for M2M are becoming real in many categories, including the following.

    ReplyDelete
  13. • Business and consumer security and surveillance: Video streams such as commercial security cameras, nannycams, petcams, etc. through mobile enabled residential or commercial gateways fall into this category. During the Shanghai World Expo 2010, 10,000 security cameras were installed on buses, trucks, and emergency vehicles. In normal circumstances, video is captured and uploaded when a Wi-Fi connection is available. When live monitoring is needed, video is transmitted over the mobile network at 2 frames per second. If each frame is 0.5 MB, then an hour of this video generates 3.6 GB. If half of these vehicles transmitted 1 hour of video over the course of a month, this would generate 18 petabytes of mobile data traffic, more that total global mobile data traffic in 2007.

    • Health care: In the medical, well-being, and sports and fitness industries, devices and services used by medical personnel are being connected to reduce errors.

    • Inventory and fleet management: Wi-Fi is being considered as an adjunct to cellular-based fleet management connectivity, to allow a vehicle to use cellular technology in the field, and support lower-cost, higher-speed Wi-Fi to download and upload data while in fleet headquarters and loading areas.

    • Telematics: Trip assistance, navigation, and vehicle management are gaining greater consumer adoption, along with broadband-to-the-car offerings that use a cellular connection to the vehicle and then distribute the connection to notebook PCs and other devices within the vehicle through Wi-Fi.

    ReplyDelete
  14. Figure 7. Machine-to-Machine Traffic to Increase 40-Fold Between 2010 and 2015


    Trend 9: Ubiquitous Mobility

    One of the most astonishing developments of the past few years has been the extension of mobile services even beyond the boundaries of the power grid. Mobile phones are reaching every corner of the earth. There are already 32 countries where mobile data has broken the electricity barrier. By the end of 2011, this effect will be visible at the regional level, when the total number of mobile users in Sub-Saharan Africa and Southeast Asia exceeds the total on-grid population in those regions. By the end of 2013, the number of mobile users in the Middle East will exceed the Middle Eastern on-grid population, and by 2015 the number of mobile users in South Asia (India and surrounding countries) will exceed the South Asian on-grid population.
    Figure 8 shows the regions in which the number of mobile subscribers exceeds the on-grid population, from 2009 through 2015. (Note: regions are highlighted in orange the first year that the on-net population exceeds the on-grid population.)
    Figure 8. Mobile Access in 4 Major Regions Will Break the Electricity Barrier by 2015


    Selling a charge for a mobile phone-from a bank of wired outlets or even an adapted car battery-has become a cottage industry in many developing countries. Individuals, even those below the poverty line, are finding that mobile access increases their financial prospects, and are willing to go to great lengths to maintain access. Operators and governments also have incentives to encourage off-grid access to mobile services. Operators are developing new, highly profitable business models that are attractive and affordable to the base of the global economic pyramid. Governments and communities are finding that gross domestic product (GDP) and local economic growth appear to be correlated with mobile growth.
    The end result is that the off-grid, on-net population will reach 138 million by 2015 (Figure 9). The mobile network will break the electricity barrier in 4 major regions and more than 40 countries (including India, Indonesia, and Nigeria) by 2015. "Breaking the electricity barrier" may be a short-lived phenomenon, since electricity access is likely to catch up to mobile access in the long term (perhaps even in response to the demand for mobile services), but it is nevertheless a testament to the socio-economic impact of network access that mobile has extended beyond the reach of the power grid.

    ReplyDelete
  15. Figure 9. The Off-Grid, On-Net Population Will Reach 138 Million by 2015


    Further estimates and details are available in Appendix C.
    Conclusion

    Mobile data is well on its way to become a necessity. Mobile voice service is already considered a necessity by most, and mobile data, video, and TV services are fast becoming an essential part of consumers' lives. Used extensively by consumer as well the enterprise segments, and seeing impressive uptakes in both developed and emerging markets, mobility has proven to be transformational. Mobile subscribers are growing rapidly and bandwidth demand due to data and video is increasing. Mobile M2M connections continue to increase. The next 5 years are projected to provide unabated mobile video adoption despite the recessionary trends in macroeconomic conditions. Backhaul capacity must increase so mobile broadband, data access, and video services can effectively support consumer usage trends and keep mobile infrastructure costs in check.
    Deploying next-generation mobile networks requires greater service portability and interoperability. With the proliferation of mobile and portable devices, there is an imminent need for networks to allow all these devices to be connected transparently, with the network providing high performance computing and delivering enhanced real time video and multimedia. This openness will broaden the range of applications and services that can be shared, creating a highly enhanced mobile broadband experience. The expansion of wireless presence will increase the number of consumers who access and rely on mobile networks, creating a need for greater economies of scale and lower cost per bit.
    As many business models emerge with new forms of advertising, media and content partnerships, mobile services including M2M, live gaming and looking into the future, augmented reality, a mutually beneficial situation needs to be developed for service providers and over-the-top providers. New partnerships, ecosystems, and strategic consolidations are expected as mobile operators, content providers, application developers, and others seek to monetize the video traffic that traverses mobile networks. Operators must solve the challenge of effectively monetizing video traffic while investing and increasing infrastructure capital expenditures. They must become more agile and able to quickly change course and provide innovative services to engage the Web 3.0 consumer. As the net neutrality regulatory process and business models of the operators evolve, there is an unmet demand from consumers for the highest quality and speeds. As wireless technologies aim to provide experiences formerly only available through wired networks, the next few years will be critical for operators and service providers to plan future network deployments that will create a adaptable platform upon which will deploy the multitude of mobile enabled devices and applications of the future.
    For More Information

    Inquiries can be directed to traffic-inquiries@cisco.com.

    ReplyDelete
  16. Appendix A: The Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast

    Table 9 shows detailed data from the Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast. The portable device category includes laptops with mobile data cards, USB modems, and other portable devices with embedded cellular connectivity.
    Table 9. Global Mobile Data Traffic 2010-2015

    2010
    2011
    2012
    2013
    2014
    2015
    CAGR
    2010-2015

    By Application Category (TB per Month)

    Data
    73,741
    160,101
    321,036
    561,242
    893,330
    1,407,000
    80%

    File sharing
    33,510
    64,186
    113,821
    176,657
    258,727
    378,559
    62%

    Video
    117,943
    288,405
    655,442
    1,334,333
    2,452,898
    4,149,610
    104%

    VoIP
    4,021
    6,120
    9,067
    11,797
    14,386
    23,282
    42%

    M2M
    7,462
    27,234
    63,575
    113,509
    186,603
    295,469
    109%

    By Device Type (TB per Month)

    Nonsmartphones
    10,193
    20,699
    36,900
    63,281
    110,302
    193,127
    80%

    Smartphones
    35,451
    97,490
    250,877
    566,772
    1,081,368
    1,661,689
    116%

    Laptops and netbooks
    160,505
    341,602
    683,663
    1,223,207
    2,047,264
    3,481,982
    85%

    Tablets
    1,210
    6,510
    21,621
    55,551
    122,208
    247,646
    190%

    Home gateways
    21,686
    51,994
    105,038
    171,898
    250,741
    362,584
    76%

    M2M
    7,462
    27,234
    63,575
    113,509
    186,603
    295,469
    109%

    Other portable devices
    170
    521
    1,276
    3,345
    7,504
    11,493
    132%

    By Region (TB per Month)

    North America
    48,959
    118,084
    235,411
    416,025
    674,579
    986,039
    82%

    Western Europe
    64,407
    145,685
    325,518
    634,869
    1,072,665
    1,631,953
    91%

    Asia Pacific
    54,919
    128,445
    269,218
    529,806
    996,624
    1,836,842
    102%

    Japan
    40,245
    86,478
    172,112
    289,322
    425,161
    577,998
    70%

    Latin America
    11,687
    25,997
    60,486
    127,206
    257,463
    487,784
    111%

    Central Eastern Europe
    10,312
    24,617
    55,733
    110,011
    200,927
    346,296
    102%

    Middle East and Africa
    6,147
    16,744
    44,473
    90,324
    178,570
    387,078
    129%

    Total (TB per Month)

    Total Mobile Data Traffic
    236,676
    546,050
    1,162,950
    2,197,563
    3,805,989
    6,253,991
    92%



    Source: Cisco VNI Mobile, 2011

    The Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast relies in part upon data published by Informa Telecoms and Media, Strategy Analytics, Infonetics, Datamonitor, Gartner, IDC, Dell'Oro, Synergy, Nielsen, comScore, and the International Telecommunications Union (ITU).
    The Cisco VNI methodology begins with the number and growth of connections and devices, applies adoption rates for applications, and then multiplies the application's user base by Cisco's estimated minutes of use and KB per minute for that application. The methodology has evolved to link assumptions more closely with fundamental drivers, to use data sources unique to Cisco, and to provide a high degree of application, segment, geographic, and device specificity.
    • Inclusion of fundamental drivers. As with the fixed IP traffic forecast, each Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast update increases the linkages between the main assumptions and fundamental factors such as available connection speed, pricing of connections and devices, computational processing power, screen size and resolution, and even device battery life. This update focuses on the relationship of mobile connection speeds and the KB-per-minute assumptions in the forecast model. Proprietary data from the Cisco Global Internet Speed Test (GIST) application was used as a baseline for current-year smartphone connection speeds for each country.

    ReplyDelete
  17. Device-centric approach. As the number and variety of devices on the mobile network continue to increase, it becomes essential to model traffic at the device level rather than the connection level. This Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast update details traffic to smartphones; nonsmartphones; laptops, tablets, and netbooks; e-readers; digital still cameras; digital video cameras; digital photo frames; in-car entertainment systems; and handheld gaming consoles.

    • Estimation of the impact of traffic offload. The Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast model now quantifies the effect of dual-mode devices and femtocells on handset traffic. Proprietary data from Cisco's IBSG Connected Life Market Watch was used to model offload effects.

    • Increased application-level specificity. The forecast now offers a deeper and wider range of application specificity.

    Appendix B: A Case Study on the Initial Impact of Tiered Pricing on Mobile Data Usage

    An increasing number of service providers worldwide are moving from unlimited data plans to tiered mobile data packages. Cisco is following this trend closely and recently completed a case study to determine the initial impact of tiered pricing on mobile data traffic. The case study is based on the data of a Global Top 50 service provider and spans the months immediately preceding and following the implementation of tiered pricing.
    Study Findings

    The impact of tiered pricing on traffic does not appear to be immediate. Three months after the service provider in this case study introduced tiered pricing, 20 percent of smartphone users were on tiered plans, but traffic growth continued at a rate of 5 percent per month. Though there may turn out to be longer-term effects, the revenue measures in the 3 months following the pricing change reflect continued mobile data traffic growth.
    Traffic volumes did not decrease. Traffic volumes of mobile data users in the 3 months after the pricing change were 15 percent higher than volumes in the 3 months prior to the pricing change, growing from an average of 114 megabytes per month in the 3 months before tiered pricing to 131 megabytes per month in the 3 months after tiered pricing. Average monthly growth for all mobile users in the 9 months covered by the study was 5 percent.
    Traffic growth has not slowed. There was no statistically significant slowing of monthly growth rates in the 3 months after the pricing change compared to growth rates in the 6 prior months.
    The percentage of users generating over 200 megabytes per month increased from 20 percent to 30 percent, over the course of 9 months. The increased data usage is a short-term positive result for service providers because it will lead to a greater uptake of higher-tiered packages. Long-term, service providers in competitive markets may need tiers that keep pace with usage increases, or tiers that are defined in terms of services rather than data volumes.
    The top 1 percent of subscribers generated 21 percent of traffic in the last 3 months of the study, down from 28 percent in the first 3 months. The most pronounced change found in the study was the shift in the amount of traffic from the top 1 percent of subscribers, which declined from 28 percent in the first 3 months to 21 percent in the last 3 months. In contrast, the lowest 80 percent of data users was responsible for 21 percent of the total data traffic in the last 3 months, an increase from 19 percent in the first 3 months. If this trend holds for other service providers, it may be a net positive effect for the industry, because traffic that is more evenly distributed across the subscriber base may increase profitability.
    Android approaches "iPhone-like" levels of data use. At the beginning of the study, iPhone consumption was at least 4 times higher than that of any other smartphone platform supported by the service provider. In the final months of the study, iPhone consumption was only 1.75 times higher than that of the second-highest platform, Android.

    ReplyDelete
  18. About This Study

    The findings in this study are based on Cisco's analysis of data provided by a third-party data analysis firm. This firm maintains a panel of volunteer participants who have given the company access to their mobile service bills, including KB of data usage. The data in this study reflects usage associated with over 15,000 devices and spans 9 months. Cisco's analysis of the data consists of categorizing the devices and users, incorporating additional third-party information on device characteristics, and performing exploratory and statistical data analysis.
    Tiered Offerings and Mobile Data Traffic Growth

    For most aggregate measures of data consumption, the effect of tiered pricing has yet to appear. The service provider did not require existing subscribers to immediately convert to the new system, yet almost 20 percent of mobile data subscribers migrated to one of the tiered plans within 3 months. It may take additional time before the full effects of tiered pricing on traffic are visible, but it is clear that the impact will be gradual. Mobile data traffic per user grew 5 percent per month, on average (Table 10).
    Table 10. On Average, Mobile Data Traffic per User Grew 5 Percent per Month

    MB per User per Month
    Average Monthly Growth

    Month 1
    Month 2
    Month 3
    Month 4
    Month 5
    Month 6
    Month 7
    Month 8
    Month 9

    All mobile users
    91
    99
    94
    108
    114
    121
    124
    133
    137
    5.4%

    Mobile data users*
    175
    191
    185
    206
    216
    229
    233
    244
    251
    4.7%



    * "Mobile Data Users" are defined as those who generate at least 10 KB of data traffic per month.

    Source: Cisco, 2011

    Traffic volumes in the final 3 months were significantly higher than the volumes in months 4 through 6 (with significance defined as a difference between measurements that exceeds 1 standard deviation). Although month-to-month growth rates did appear to be lower in months 7 through 9 compared to the earlier months, this was not a statistically significant decrease. It is possible that this is an early sign of slower growth rates for mobile data, should the growth rates continue to be lower than the growth rates prior to the introduction of tiered pricing at the end of month 6, but the data available at this time indicates no significant change (Table 11).
    Table 11. Mobile Users Generated Significantly More Traffic after Pricing Change; Growth Rate Did Not Slow

    MB per User per Month in 3 Months Before Pricing Change
    MB per User per Month in 3 Months After Pricing Change
    Statistically Significant Increase in Volume?
    Month-to-Month Growth in 3 Months After Pricing Change
    Month-to-Month Growth in 3 Months After Pricing Change
    Statistically Significant Decline in Growth Rate?

    All mobile users
    114
    131
    Yes
    6.1%
    4.3%
    No

    Mobile data users*
    217
    243
    Yes
    5.6%
    3.1%
    No



    * "Mobile Data Users" are defined as those who generate at least 10 KB of data traffic per month.

    Source: Cisco, 2011

    The number of mobile data users generating more than 2 GB per month has more than doubled over the course of the study, and the percentage of users generating over 200 MB per month increased from 20 percent to 30 percent.
    Table 12. Five Percent of Mobile Data Users Consume More Than 2 GB per Month

    Data Usage
    Percent of Data Users

    Month 1
    Month 2
    Month 3
    Month 4
    Month 5
    Month 6
    Month 7
    Month 8
    Month 9

    Greater than 5 GB
    0.3%
    0.3%
    0.2%
    0.3%
    0.2%
    0.3%
    0.3%
    0.3%
    0.4%

    Between 2 GB and 5 GB
    2.0%
    2.5%
    2.7%
    3.3%
    3.6%
    3.9%
    3.9%
    4.5%
    4.6%

    Between 200 MB and 2 GB
    18%
    19%
    19%
    22%
    22%
    24%
    25%
    25%
    24%

    Less Than 200 MB
    79%
    78%
    78%
    74%
    74%
    72%
    71%
    71%
    71%



    Source: Cisco, 2011

    ReplyDelete
  19. The rapid increase in data usage presents a challenge to service providers who have implemented tiers defined solely in terms of usage limits. Mobile data caps that fall too far behind usage volumes may create opportunities for competitors in the market. For this reason, many service providers are creating more nuanced tiers and data add-ons, such as a separate charge for tethering and hotspot functionality. Such offerings tend to require less vigilance on the part of subscribers than data caps, yet still monetize scenarios that tend to have high data usage.
    Mobile Data Traffic Volume by Operating System

    At the beginning of the study, iPhone consumption was at least 4 times higher than any other platform. In the final months of the study, iPhone consumption was only 1.75 times higher than the second-highest platform, Android. Android phones have experienced the highest month-to-month growth rate, 57 percent, roughly doubling every 2 months. Despite this growth, Android was one of the platforms that seemed to be affected the most by the introduction of tiered pricing, with monthly growth flattening in the final 3 months, and with a significant decline in month-to-month growth rates after the first 6 months.
    Table 13. iPhones Generate 350 MB per Month; Android Phones in Second Place With 200 MB per Month

    Operating System
    Month 1
    Month 2
    Month 3
    Month 4
    Month 5
    Month 6*
    Month 7
    Month 8
    Month 9
    Average Monthly Growth

    Android
    20
    55
    50
    146
    264
    331
    186
    200
    240
    56.7%

    Blackberry
    68
    74
    77
    86
    88
    92
    101
    102
    108
    5.9%

    Apple (iOS)
    304
    334
    321
    333
    350
    368
    341
    357
    366
    2.5%

    Palm OS
    3
    4
    3
    5
    5
    6
    11
    7
    12
    27.8%

    Proprietary
    9
    10
    9
    11
    13
    13
    11
    12
    13
    5.0%

    Symbian OS
    21
    27
    48
    30
    31
    46
    33
    94
    117
    37.9%

    Windows Mobile 5 and earlier
    30
    39
    30
    24
    32
    30
    30
    27
    27
    1.0%

    Windows Mobile 6 and later
    72
    77
    59
    61
    70
    83
    87
    102
    105
    5.7%



    Source: Cisco, 2011

    Figure 10. Megabytes per Month by Operating System (Months 7 Through 9)


    The Changing Role of the Top 1 Percent of Mobile Data Subscribers

    As with fixed broadband, the top 1 percent of mobile data subscribers is responsible for a disproportionate amount of mobile data traffic. However, according to the data from this study, this disproportion is becoming less pronounced with time. The amount of traffic due to the top 1 percent of subscribers declined from 28 percent in the first 3 months to 21 percent in the last 3 months. In contrast, the lowest 80 percent of data users was responsible for 21 percent of the total data traffic in the last 3 months, an increase from 19 percent in the first 3 months. For each tier, the change in the traffic share in the last 3 months of the study compared to the first 3 months was statistically significant. The shift does not appear to have been related to the introduction of tiered pricing, since the proportions for months 7 though 9 are similar to those of months 4 through 6 (Table 14 and Figure 11).

    ReplyDelete
  20. Table 14. Percentage of Traffic by User Tier

    Data Users
    Month 1
    Month 2
    Month 3
    Month 4
    Month 5
    Month 6
    Month 7
    Month 8
    Month 9

    % of traffic due to top 1%
    29%
    29%
    26%
    22%
    22%
    20%
    20%
    21%
    22%

    % of traffic due to top 5%
    52%
    52%
    49%
    46%
    47%
    45%
    45%
    46%
    47%

    % of traffic due to top 10%
    66%
    66%
    64%
    61%
    62%
    60%
    60%
    61%
    62%

    % of traffic due to top 20%
    82%
    82%
    80%
    79%
    79%
    77%
    78%
    79%
    80%

    % of traffic due to the bottom 80%
    18%
    18%
    20%
    21%
    21%
    23%
    22%
    21%
    20%



    Source: Cisco, 2011

    Figure 11. Share of Traffic Due to the Top 1 Percent and Bottom 80 Percent


    Although the traffic share of the top tiers may be declining, their volumes continue to increase. For each tier, the increase in the data volume in the 3 months after the pricing change was statistically significant. The lowest 80 percent, not shown in Tables 15 and 16, did not experience significant growth, and did experience a significant slowing of monthly growth rates.
    Table 15. Average Traffic by User Tier in MB per Month

    User Tier
    Month 1
    Month 2
    Month 3
    Month 4
    Month 5
    Month 6*
    Month 7
    Month 8
    Month 9
    Average Monthly Growth

    Top 1%
    5,600
    6,046
    5,260
    4,900
    5,234
    5,155
    5,268
    5,702
    6,091
    1.3%

    Top 5%
    1,834
    1,996
    1,852
    1,918
    2,046
    2,079
    2,110
    2,257
    2,376
    3.4%

    Top 10%
    1,156
    1,261
    1,187
    1,266
    1,337
    1,373
    1,400
    1,495
    1,566
    4.0%

    Top 20%
    718
    781
    744
    811
    851
    883
    905
    963
    1,005
    4.4%

    All data users
    175
    191
    185
    206
    216
    229
    233
    244
    251
    4.7%

    All mobile users
    91
    99
    94
    108
    114
    121
    124
    133
    137
    5.4%



    Source: Cisco, 2011

    Table 16. Mobile Users Generated Significantly More Traffic After Pricing Change; Growth Rate Did Not Slow

    User Tier
    MB per User per Month 3 Months Before Pricing Change
    MB per User per Month 3 Months After Pricing Change
    Statistically Significant Increase in Volume?
    Month-to-Month Growth 3 Months Before Pricing Change
    Month-to-Month Growth 3 Months After Pricing Change
    Statistically Significant Decline in Growth Rate?

    Top 1%
    5,096
    5,687
    Yes
    -1.3%
    5.8%
    No

    Top 5%
    2,014
    2,248
    Yes
    2.7%
    4.6%
    No

    Top 10%
    1,325
    1,487
    Yes
    3.6%
    4.5%
    No

    Top 20%
    848
    958
    Yes
    4.3%
    4.4%
    No

    All data users
    217
    243
    Yes
    5.6%
    3.1%
    No

    All mobile users
    114
    131
    Yes
    6.1%
    4.3%
    No



    Source: Cisco, 2011

    There are some early signs that tiered pricing is reducing growth in data usage in some segments, such as Android users. However, the overall measures displayed healthy growth with few signs of this growth slowing, and the move to tiered pricing does not appear to have an immediate effect.
    Appendix C: Breaking the Electricity Barrier

    Table 17 shows the number of off-grid mobile subscribers, in countries where they outnumber the on-grid population. Note that when mobile subscribers were compared to on-grid population in each country, only the on-grid population above the age of 4 was considered, in order to ensure that the subscriber and population figures were comparable.

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  21. Table 17. Number of Off-Grid Mobile Subscribers, 2009-2015

    2009
    2010
    2011
    2012
    2013
    2014
    2015

    Africa

    Angola
    482,308
    853,370
    1,884,950
    2,271,429
    2,367,742
    2,343,201
    2,300,185

    Benin
    292,571
    648,280
    663,462
    1,048,626
    1,305,244
    1,470,962
    1,594,037

    Botswana
    446,007
    619,206
    859,354
    873,197
    864,367
    858,518
    851,427

    Burkina Faso
    297,051
    871,539
    878,796
    763,201
    581,839
    351,906
    130,455

    Cape Verde
    9,213
    22,025
    98,759
    124,236
    135,693
    141,479
    145,038

    Congo
    530,782
    1,084,594
    1,082,697
    1,228,579
    1,283,650
    1,303,378
    1,313,965

    Gabon
    485,466
    630,545
    705,989
    723,937
    719,800
    713,164
    706,640

    Gambia
    167,598
    274,193
    362,936
    389,401
    389,087
    380,151
    373,485

    Kenya
    5,544,395
    6,544,133
    8,896,795
    9,919,427
    10,280,349
    10,422,908
    10,538,913

    Lesotho
    91,883
    187,810
    197,282
    211,015
    211,627
    209,600
    205,801

    Malawi
    304,853
    658,370
    776,539
    835,942
    821,094
    772,951
    722,034

    Mauritania
    361,564
    645,926
    772,180
    791,941
    779,487
    767,203
    764,958

    Mayotte
    249,266
    409,478
    446,839
    453,875
    457,413
    464,244
    474,595

    Mozambique
    845,784
    1,295,417
    2,094,999
    2,793,392
    3,196,299
    3,397,365
    3,484,592

    Namibia
    343,128
    400,461
    501,369
    533,959
    543,590
    547,370
    550,694

    Réunion
    379,769
    498,957
    507,476
    503,024
    494,521
    490,621
    490,731

    South Africa
    1,626,776
    1,941,320
    2,153,484
    2,160,048
    1,993,034
    1,682,161
    1,269,337

    Tanzania
    3,868,815
    6,490,796
    7,438,046
    8,164,528
    8,604,914
    8,997,551
    9,361,881

    Togo
    97,870
    113,475
    289,762
    392,526
    441,757
    465,091
    480,884

    Uganda
    5,600,481
    7,558,505
    9,291,441
    10,692,302
    11,757,826
    12,545,900
    13,208,306

    Zambia
    492,325
    1,019,122
    1,611,396
    2,038,588
    2,289,866
    2,437,420
    2,535,689

    Equatorial Guinea

    68,479
    73,967
    78,031
    77,859
    75,788
    75,830

    Nigeria

    776,702
    3,412,369
    4,330,346
    4,081,957
    3,071,804
    2,058,497

    Senegal

    189,147
    737,270
    956,884
    1,033,212
    1,016,715
    969,095

    Cote d'Ivoire


    1,117,290
    1,665,552
    1,966,649
    2,146,921
    2,277,630

    DR Congo


    1,639,473
    2,986,503
    3,791,235
    4,199,239
    4,418,016

    Guinea-Bissau


    14,602
    41,487
    40,929
    33,520
    30,419

    Madagascar


    329,860
    1,035,267
    1,584,593
    1,988,693
    2,289,874

    Asia Pacific

    Cambodia
    1,323,113
    3,258,396
    3,422,926
    3,811,302
    4,102,216
    4,323,389
    4,509,292

    East Timor
    51,310
    176,705
    145,510
    164,939
    176,236
    182,703
    189,798

    Fiji
    21,213
    74,925
    88,036
    103,288
    109,863
    111,509
    111,781

    Maldives
    72,087
    89,197
    97,376
    101,059
    101,434
    101,147
    101,685

    Indonesia

    2,141,029
    11,416,878
    16,532,357
    18,962,194
    19,788,405
    19,798,828

    Mongolia

    63,859
    107,410
    192,338
    233,372
    249,614
    253,657

    Bangladesh



    167,765
    3,541,292
    7,882,612
    12,543,435

    Guam



    568
    7,324
    15,350
    22,329

    Laos




    66,043
    252,666
    373,561

    India






    18,251,589

    Americas

    Honduras
    708,481
    1,134,211
    2,632,564
    3,061,564
    3,320,503
    3,465,424
    3,567,260

    Middle East

    Afghanistan
    4,829,660
    6,560,983
    9,603,929
    11,505,810
    12,379,055
    12,748,323
    12,963,246

    Yemen


    290,615
    600,856
    718,288
    722,749
    762,205

    World

    Total
    30,012,078
    47,902,130
    77,322,677
    94,987,260
    106,596,683
    113,954,827
    137,909,707




    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

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